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doc506 a89d1bfa-6bf7-434b-9bc1-257b998dead4_Norwich_Economic_Barometer_July_2026_ORIGINAL-artifacted.pdf
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"text": "The Bank of England maintained UK interest rates at their current level (3.75%), warning that any further escalation of the conflict with Iran could push inflation above 4% next year and increase cost of living pressures for households. While official figures show that UK inflation fell more than expected to 2.6% in June, down from a peak of 3.8% last year, policymakers remain cautious about external risks that could drive energy and commodity prices higher. Prior to the outbreak of the Iran conflict, inflation had been on a trajectory towards the Bank's 2% target, but heightened geopolitical uncertainty now poses a risk to further progress.",
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"text": "Business confidence in the UK fell to its lowest level in more than a year in June, driven by weaker profit expectations and growing reluctance among service sector firms to expand their workforce or invest in capital projects. Against a backdrop of political uncertainty, persistent inflation, subdued consumer confidence and geopolitical risks, many businesses reported adapting their strategies by targeting new export markets, diversifying products and services, adopting AI technologies and strengthening cost controls. According to the S&P Global UK Business Outlook survey summarised in Figure 1, firms remained optimistic about private sector output over the next 12 months, but net optimism declined, marking the weakest reading since February 2025. The decline was largely attributed to a sharp increase in the number of service sector companies expecting activity to fall, reducing confidence in the sector to its joint lowest level since October 2022. Respondents highlighted rising labour costs, weaker client spending and global uncertainty as key challenges, although many continued to identify opportunities for growth through AI-driven service improvements and broader business diversification.",
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"text": "Figure 2 shows the UK manufacturing sector continued to show signs of recovery at the start of the third quarter, with stronger growth in production, new orders and export demand, alongside easing pressures from high cost inflation and supply chain disruption. The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for the ninth consecutive month, registering 51.9 in July, down slightly from 52.5 in June and representing a four-month low, but still above the neutral 50.0 threshold. Four of the five PMI components indicated improving operating conditions, with output, new orders and employment all increasing, while supplier delivery times lengthened. The modest decline in the headline PMI reflected a sharp reduction in stocks of purchases, slower job creation and a significant easing in the rate of supplier delivery delays. Manufacturing output rose for the fourth successive month and accelerated to its strongest rate in almost two years, driven by growth across consumer, intermediate and investment goods production. However, performance varied by business size, as medium and large manufacturers reported output growth while smaller firms experienced a slight decline in production volumes.",
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"text": "UK construction firms continued to face challenging conditions in June, with sharp declines in both output and new orders, although the pace of contraction eased slightly from the six-year lows recorded in May. The S&P Global UK Construction PMI rose marginally to 38.4 from 38.2 but remained well below the neutral 50.0 threshold, indicating a sustained downturn in activity. Figure 3 shows construction output has now fallen every month since January 2025, with June marking the second-steepest decline since the onset of the pandemic. While cost pressures moderated and supply chain disruptions became less severe compared with April and May, demand remained weak across much of the sector. Commercial construction proved the most resilient segment, with activity declining at a slower rate than the previous month,",
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"text": "whereas housebuilding recorded its sharpest contraction of 2026 and civil engineering activity fell at its fastest pace since April 2020. Firms attributed weaker activity levels to subdued housing market conditions, higher borrowing costs, ongoing business uncertainty and delays to project starts.",
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"text": "KPMG's annual private enterprise barometer found that 83 per cent of the firms it surveyed in the East are confident of second half growth, down slightly on the start of the year but compared to 80 per cent nationally. Two-thirds of firms saw areas such as AI, cyber security and broader digital transformation as key focuses, a 30-percentage point increase since the start of the year. KPMG said it signals how investment is shifting towards practical implementation of tech like AI to improve productivity, efficiency and growth. Meanwhile, nearly two thirds of businesses are looking to expand their service offerings and broaden their client base and over half are turning to their own balance sheets to help fund their growth plans, reflecting a growing preference to retain control.",
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"text": "The outlook amongst private firms in the East of England's improved in June as inflation eased despite a weakening in output, new orders and employment during the month. Input price and charge inflation both eased further to reach three-month lows and overall confidence was the highest since February, before the Middle East war started. Hopes for growth were linked to an end to the war, investment, diversification, marketing, stronger sales pipelines, contract wins and higher exports. But the NatWest East of England growth tracker business activity index fell to 47.4 in June, from 48.9 in May, the first 'back-to-back declines' for over a year. Meanwhile, the rate of job shedding was the fastest since March.",
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"text": "According to BDO's bi-monthly mid-market tracker, most businesses in the region (88 per cent) are hiring for entry level roles within the next six months But many say higher employment costs and labour or skills shortages are one of the top challenges they face. Nearly one-fifth are pivoting to hiring contractors, freelancers or consultants rather",
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"text": "than permanent employees; potentially threatening the number of secure opportunities available for young people in the region. Most firms identified a gap in soft skills such as problem-solving, reliability, communication and relationship-building, whilst just over one-quarter cited a lack of technical or industry-specific skills.",
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"text": "The East of England has seen some of the strongest growth of any UK region in the number of mid-market businesses, according to new data. Despite uncertain economic times, the number of firms trading in the East in the £10-500 million-turnover bracket has risen by 5.4 per cent to over 3,000 businesses, outperforming the national increase of 4.4 per cent. Figures from BDO also show that businesses in the East lifted turnover by 4.8 per cent to £180 billion and supports more than 850,000 jobs across the region.",
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"text": "Norwich Airport has been rated 'good' for accessibility in a new report. This rating was given by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) as part of its annual Airport Accessibility Report, which assesses the quality of support provided to disabled passengers and those with reduced mobility. Norwich was one of nine airports to receive a 'good' rating, while 19 others were rated 'very good'.",
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"text": "centre unit back into use. The retailer will occupy 51-53 St Stephens Street, the former home of the YMCA store, which has stood empty since its closure last year.",
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"text": "Norwich University of the Arts and the Royal College of Art (RCA) have signed a historic agreement to establish jointly awarded undergraduate degrees, creating a new model of creative higher education collaboration in the UK. It is the only current opportunity anywhere to study undergraduate degrees validated by the Royal College of Art, the world's leading art and design university and a specialist postgraduate institution.",
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"embedded_text": "Claimant count unemployment 2021-2026\n6.0\npopulation 3.0\n5.0\n4.0\nage\n2.0\nAugust… August… August… August… August…\nOctober… October… October… October… October…\nworking June Decembe… February… April June Decembe… February… April June Decembe… February… April June Decembe… February… April June Decembe… February… April June\n2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2024 2025 2025 2026 2026\nof\n% Norwich local authority Norwich urban area Norfolk\nEast of England Great Britain"
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"text": "Norwich Local Authority (LA) has consistently recorded a higher claimant count unemployment rate than the other areas throughout the period. Although unemployment fell sharply from a peak of around 5.6% in June 2021 to a low of 3.4% in late 2022, the rate subsequently increased and stabilised at around 4.2% by June 2026. This remains above the national average (3.9%), Norfolk (3.6%), the East of England (3.3%) and particularly the wider Norwich Urban Area (3.1%).",
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"text": "While all areas followed a similar post-pandemic trend of decline followed by a modest increase from 2023 onwards, Norwich LA has maintained the highest claimant rate and the largest gap with neighbouring areas, indicating that unemployment-related benefit claims remain more concentrated within the city authority than across the wider local, regional and national geographies.",
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footer (1)
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table (1)
table_cell (130)
text (2)
1 · HEADING
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136 · FOOTER
Page 9 JSON
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"text": "Table 1 shows that compared with May 2026, the Norwich city council area saw a small increase in claimant unemployment. This contrasts with Norfolk and the Norwich Urban Area, where unemployment rates remained unchanged, although it mirrors the increase seen across the East of England. Looking at the annual picture, labour market conditions in Norwich city council area have deteriorated more significantly, with the claimant unemployment rate increasing from 3.9% in June 2025 to 4.2% in June 2026. This was a larger increase than in Norfolk and the Norwich Urban Area and the East of England, while Great Britain's rate remained unchanged. As a result, the city council area continues to have the highest claimant unemployment rate among the comparator areas, indicating greater labour market pressures locally than across the wider county, region and nationally.",
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"text": "Housing Benefit is a means-tested benefit that helps people on low incomes meet the cost of rented accommodation. The figures also include residents receiving Council Tax Support only. Claimants include a wide range of households, including pensioners, disabled people, carers and those in employment but on low incomes. Norwich's relatively low average earnings contribute to a higher level of reliance on income-related benefits compared with many other areas.",
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"text": "Table 3 shows that the number of Housing Benefit claimants in Norwich has remained relatively stable over the past year, fluctuating around 13,000 claimants. While there were several month-to-month changes, including notable decreases in December 2025 and March 2026, these were partly offset by increases in April and May 2026. Overall, the claimant count fell from 13,263 in July 2025 to 13,170 in July 2026, representing a modest annual decrease of 93 claimants (0.7%).",
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Page 12 JSON
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"text": "The House Price Index (HPI) produced by HM Land Registry is widely regarded as the most accurate and independent measure of house price trends in England. It is based on completed sales data from HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, and Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, with the index itself calculated by the Office for National Statistics.",
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"text": "According to HM Land Registry's House Price Index (Crown copyright) and summarised in Figure 5, average house prices in the year to May increased by 5.8% in Norwich, 3.1% in Norfolk, 2.3% in the East of England and England. Figure 5 illustrates monthly changes in average house prices since May 2023. On a monthly basis, average prices increased by 2.8% in May in Norwich, 0.5% in Norfolk, 0.5% in the East of England and by 0.1% in England.",
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"text": "The latest ONS data show that Norwich’s private rental market has cooled significantly after a period of rapid growth. Annual rent inflation peaked at 10.5% in June 2025 but fell sharply through late 2025 and early 2026, reaching -1.5% in April 2026 before recovering to 1.2% in June 2026. Norwich’s annual rental inflation is now well below both the East of England (3.3%) and England (3.4%), indicating that rental pressures are easing more quickly in the city than across the wider region and nationally. The latest average monthly private rents are £1,149 in Norwich, compared with £1,281 across the East of England and £1,446 across England, meaning Norwich remains relatively affordable despite the substantial rent increases seen over the previous two years.",
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"text": "Year on year % is calculated by comparing the 2025-2026 period with the 2024-2025 period i.e the figure for July compares July 2026 to July 2025",
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"text": "Contact details:",
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"text": "Sharon Cousins-Clarke, Economic Development, Norwich City Council, Email: SharonCousins-Clarke@norwich.gov.uk",
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"text": "Sources:",
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"r": 416.0761,
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{
"id": "p16.6.1",
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"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 50.8697,
"t": 627.6,
"r": 398.0798,
"b": 612.72
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"text": "Figure 1: S&P Global/CIPS UK Services Business Activity Index",
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},
{
"id": "p16.6.2",
"order": 8,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 51.3496,
"t": 605.52,
"r": 326.8141,
"b": 591.12
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"text": "Figure 2: S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI",
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},
{
"id": "p16.6.3",
"order": 9,
"type": "list_item",
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"l": 51.5896,
"t": 584.16,
"r": 318.4158,
"b": 569.28
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"text": "Figure 3: S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI",
"children": []
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{
"id": "p16.6.4",
"order": 10,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 51.3496,
"t": 562.08,
"r": 335.9323,
"b": 547.2
},
"text": "Figure 4: Claimant count – NOMIS, Crown copyright",
"children": []
},
{
"id": "p16.6.5",
"order": 11,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 51.1097,
"t": 540.24,
"r": 407.6778,
"b": 525.36
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"text": "Figure 5: House Price Index - HM Land Registry, Crown copyright",
"children": []
},
{
"id": "p16.6.6",
"order": 12,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 51.1097,
"t": 518.16,
"r": 416.0761,
"b": 504
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"text": "Figure 6: Price Index of Private Rents - Office for National Statistics",
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},
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"order": 13,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 51.3496,
"t": 496.56,
"r": 303.0589,
"b": 481.68
},
"text": "Figure 7: Monthly footfall counts, Norwich BID",
"children": []
},
{
"id": "p16.6.8",
"order": 14,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 51.8296,
"t": 474.72,
"r": 344.5705,
"b": 460.08
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"text": "Figure 8: Comparison of monthly footfall, Norwich BID",
"children": []
},
{
"id": "p16.6.9",
"order": 15,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 51.5896,
"t": 452.64,
"r": 299.6996,
"b": 437.76
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"text": "Figure 9: Footfall counts by day, Norwich BID",
"children": []
},
{
"id": "p16.6.10",
"order": 16,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 51.3496,
"t": 431.04,
"r": 356.5681,
"b": 415.92
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"text": "Figure 10: Rolling 12 month footfall counts, Norwich BID",
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},
{
"id": "p16.6.11",
"order": 17,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 52.0695,
"t": 408.48,
"r": 330.8933,
"b": 394.32
},
"text": "Table 1: Claimant count – NOMIS, Crown copyright",
"children": []
},
{
"id": "p16.6.12",
"order": 18,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 51.5896,
"t": 387.12,
"r": 330.6533,
"b": 372
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"text": "Table 2: Claimant count – NOMIS, Crown copyright",
"children": []
},
{
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"order": 19,
"type": "list_item",
"bbox": {
"l": 51.5896,
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"r": 362.8069,
"b": 350.4
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"text": "Table 3: Housing benefit claimants - Norwich City Council",
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]
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"text": "News stories from a variety of sources including Norwich Evening News; Business in East Anglia; Office for National Statistics; Reuters; BBC; Markit/CIPS PMI; Markit Monthly Economic Overview: University of East Anglia; Norwich University of the Arts; City College Norwich.",
"children": []
},
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"type": "footer",
"bbox": {
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"b": 44.16
},
"text": "15",
"attrs": {
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"children": []
}
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