Calculation of the future climate risk for each variable allows the ranking and prioritisation of risks as shown in Table 4.2. The future risk priorities are given scale values with the following definitions [48]:
| Projection Confidence Ranking | Future Consequence | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Critical | Must not be accepted as part of routine (unadapted) operational procedures; urgent attention at the most senior level required; adaptation measures that function to diminish risk must be proposed and acted on immediately. |
| 4 | Major | May be accepted as a part of routine operations only where adaptation measures have been identified and are immediately feasible, monitoring/early warning of the risk is routine and the nature of risk is well understood; senior management must be informed of the status and evolution of the risk over time. |
| 3 | Moderate | May remain part of routine operations, but a schedule for future adaptation should be in place, with a thorough investigation of any lead time and/or required precedent steps prior to adaptation measures becoming feasible having been conducted. |
| 2 | Minor | Likely to remain part of routine operations; should be assigned a monitoring and observation protocol; existing controls are sufficient and no further action will be required unless significant change occurs |
| 1 | Negligible | No further action will be required in the short term unless significant change occurs in the climate variable or receiving environment in question. |
Table 4.2 Future climate risk definitions [48]
Using the matrix in Table 4.1 and definitions set out in Table 4.2, a prioritisation of future climate risks was identified for County Cork which can be seen in Table 4.3 below:
| Future Climate Risk | Projection Confidence | Future Consequence | Future risk priorities |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluvial flooding | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Heat waves | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Coastal flooding | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Pluvial flooding | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| Wind storms | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Groundwater flooding | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Coastal erosion | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Freezing conditions | 5 | 1 | 2 |
Table 4.3. Prioritisation of future climate change risks in County Cork
These projections signal significant challenges for the Council, the county, and its citizens. Climate Change will have further effects on land use including agriculture and forestry, on biodiversity, on water resources, human health, the economy and society.