| 4.2.7 Wind |
| Observed | For Ireland, observations indicate a high degree of yearly variability in wind speeds and, due to a lack of correlation in the available data, analysis of long term trends cannot yet be determined with confidence [47]. |
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| Projected | Due to a limited number of climate model projections for wind speed, predictions remain uncertain and further work is required to increase confidence in their outputs. Nonetheless, available projections which focus on 60m wind speeds, the typical height of wind turbines, indicate an increase in wind speeds during winter and a decrease during summer (3-15% reduction) [35][36][37]. As a result of changes in the development regions and tracks of tropical cyclones, a decrease in the frequency of extreme wind storms affecting Western Europe is expected. However, projections indicate an increase in the intensity of extreme wind storms [38]. |
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| Summary of Change | Projections indicate a decrease in wind speeds for summer and increases for winter.
An increase in the intensity of extreme wind storms is expected. |
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| Climate Risks Identified | Wind storms or High winds, that are defined as a having a wind speed greater than 50 km/h which equates to a Force 7 (28-33 knots) on the Beaufort wind force scale. |
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The future climate risk is calculated by combining the projection confidence (i.e. the level of confidence attributable to projections of change in the climatic variable) with the future impact consequence (i.e. the estimated future level of service disruption caused) [48]. A notional scale is developed for each parameter as shown in matrix format in Table 4.1 and the future climate risk is calculated using the equation:
[48]. A notional scale is developed for each parameter as shown in matrix format in Table 4.1 and the future climate risk is calculated using the equation:
Future climate risk = Projection Confidence X Future impact consequences
PROJECTION CONFIDENCE
LOW LOW/ MED. MEDIUM MED./HIGH HIGH
NEGLIGIBLE 1 1 1 1 1 2
FUTURE CONSEQUENCE MINOR 2 1 1 2 2 3
MODERATE 3 2 2 3 3 4
MAJOR 4 3 3 4 4 5
CRITICAL 5 4 4 5 5 5
Table 4.1 Climate Risk Matrix [44]