| Observed | The seas around Ireland have been warming at a rate 0.60 C per decade since 1994, which is unprecedented in the 150 year observational record. The greatest warming has been observed over the Irish Sea [41]. |
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| Projected | In line with global changes, the seas around Ireland are projected to continue warming over the coming decades. Projected changes for the Irish Sea indicate a warming for all seasons with the highest warming in Autumn and the lowest in Spring [30]. However, due to a limited number of climate model projections, projected changes remain uncertain. With increasing atmospheric CO2, ocean acidity is projected to increase with potential impacts on the marine food webs. |
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| Summary of Change | In line with global trends, the seas around Ireland are expected to continue warming. |
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| Climate Risks Identified | Coastal floodingCoastal erosionEffects on marine bio-diversity |
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Observed Observations indicate an increase in the surface temperature for Ireland of 0.8°C since 1900. In addition, the number of warm days has increased while the number of frost days has decreased [42].
Projected Mean air temperatures are expected to increase everywhere and for all seasons relative to the present [38]. With increasing air temperatures, an increase in the intensity and duration of heat waves is expected, with a coincident decrease in the occurrence of frost days likely [38]. Projections indicate that the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures (TMAX 95%) are expected to increase more strongly than those of average seasonal temperatures with most regions experiencing an increase in TMAX 95% of 0.7 to 2.6°C [38].