The data in the table assumes a straight continuation of the 2020 to 2025 changes, there are no other variables considered in this scenario (such as demographic growth, or policy shifts for example). It is therefore a baseline planning scenario to be stress-tested each year against real incident data. With that caveat the following can be seen:
Total incidents increasing to approximately 7,343 (an increase of 1,970 compared to 2020; and an increase of 985 compared to 2025 figures), with the growth since 2020 driven predominantly by non-fire incidents and fire false alarms.
Non-fire incidents increasing to approximately 2,438 (from 1,152 in 2020 and from 1,795 in 2025) remains the largest single growth area, now approximately 36% of total incidents. The biggest contributors within this category are ‘assist other agencies’ (around 1,037), flooding (around 463), and effecting entry/exit (around 355).
Fire incidents decreasing to approximately 964 (down from 1,344 in 2020 and 1,154 in 2025): continued decline overall, with primary fires falling to 625, secondary fires falling to 315, and chimney fires falling to 0 if observed reduction persists.
Fire false alarm incidents increasing to approximately 2,345, a modest increase from 2025, with growth concentrated in good intent (~1,067) and due to apparatus (~1,243) while malicious continues to fall (~35).
Primary fires and generally more serious fires that can cause harm to people or damage to property. Secondary fires are generally small, outdoor fires that do not involve significant risk to life.