Demographic data is vital in identifying areas of risk, and the team uses information from the Office for National Statistics, Inform Gloucestershire, ACORN and the Home Office. This information allows us to better understand people and places across the county and improve service delivery.
Housebuilding in the county has been increasing, and housing need set out in ‘Local Plans’ suggests the policy need is for up to 66,000 homes across the county by 2040. Some of these homes will increasingly be using new techniques and materials that will require the Service to understand and train to the risk they may present to ensure we can respond quickly to dwelling fires and ensure residents’ and firefighters’ safety.
The population of Gloucestershire is projected to rise to 683,849 by 2028. This rate of growth is higher than the national growth rate with variations within the county. The county also has an ageing population across all six districts. The increase in the over 65 age group will impact prevention activity as data shows that people over 65 are at greater risk from fire than those under 65. The risk profile this informs requires nuanced management to direct resources to best effect, recognising the strengths and needs of people of all ages.
GFRS has clear methodologies for the assessment of risk to incidents so that resources can be targeted effectively. Deprivation can increase fire risk in several ways, and we make use of the government's Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) dataset, a relative measure, highlighting characteristics of deprivation such as unemployment, low income, crime, and poor access to education and health services. This provides an in-depth appreciation of variations in deprivation at a detailed local level using SOAs, the most recently available data for Gloucestershire and its districts are from 2025.
The Service focuses on three prioritisation categories for reducing dwelling fire: