Signs of spring have once again arrived too early to the Bluegrass, ushered in by rapidly accumulated growing degree days (GDD) since February. Growing degree days are a measure used to estimate growth and development of plants and insects. In this case, they are being used to measure the beginning of bud break and bloom. Most of our fruit crops in Kentucky require 100 to 300 GDD (base 50circF) starting from January 1 to begin blooming. The UK AG Weather Center has an online GDD calculator that can be used to track accumulation by county at http://weather.uky.edu/php/kyc_dd.php. As shown in Figure 1, 2023 is tracking closely with 2017 and plant development is running about three weeks ahead of normal. It does seem like crop losses due to a severe cold weather event or early plant development leading to frost/freeze injury has happened about every two to five years since the mid-2000s. Widespread crop losses occurred in 2007 (April freeze), 2012 (March frost/freeze), and 2015 (February cold). I would place 2018 (April frost/freeze) with this group, though it could also be considered a near-miss for some growers. Crop damage was not evenly spread statewide, some growers came through fine, while others experienced losses. According to Matt Dixon, Senior Meteorologist, UK Ag Weather Center, 2022-2023 was the second warmest winter on record for Kentucky (Table 1). “Five of the top 10 warmest winters on record have occurred since 2011-12 and while not in

It does seem like crop losses due to a severe cold weather event or early plant development leading to frost/freeze injury has happened about every two to five years since the mid-2000s. Widespread crop losses occurred in 2007 (April freeze), 2012 (March frost/freeze), and 2015 (February cold). I would place 2018 (April frost/freeze) with this group, though it could also be considered a near-miss for some growers. Crop damage was not evenly spread statewide, some growers came through fine, while others experienced losses. According to Matt Dixon, Senior Meteorologist, UK Ag Weather Center, 2022-2023 was the second warmest winter on record for Kentucky (Table 1). “Five of the top 10 warmest winters on record have occurred since 2011-12 and while not in

the top 10, 2018-19 places at #17 and 2021-22 at #19." I also find it interesting that we are in a similar situation this year as back in 2017 in which La Nina has weakened to a neutral state.

Peach trees that did not have all their flower buds killed by the December freeze have been in bloom since early March. Shawn Wright noted first bloom on ‘Saturn’ at Quicksand as early as late February. What few flowers are left on trees at Princeton started opening about a week later. Blueberries across the southern portion of the state are mostly at bud swell, but a few of the earliest have progressed to tight cluster. The blackberries I have seen are at green tip for the most part. European pears had terminals at green cluster in Lexington a week ago, but most spurs were still at bud burst. ‘Gala’ apple trees in our high-density NC-140 block are mostly still at green tip to half-inch green.

With the advanced phenology this spring, the cold weather of two weeks ago has been a concern. Temperatures across the state dropped into the upper teens to low 20's on Wednesday morning, March 15th, with another round of cold mornings on the 20th and 21st to end the week (Figure 2). Northern highbush blueberries, matted row strawberries, and most apples should have come