External Relations and Development Committee July 22, 2016 Marriott Griffin Gate Hotel Lexington, KY
Endowment Management Report
The market value of the Endowment as of 09/27/16 is $15,435,420. This represents an increase of approximately $277,072 (+1.83%) during the 3rd calendar quarter of 2016. Over the last nine months the portfolio is up approximately $716,693 (+4.8%). There were no major allocation changes during the quarter to the overall allocation or the manager line-up.
GLOBAL TRENDS
Three-month Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate), a key benchmark rate that some of the world's leading banks charge each other for short-term loans, has risen over 20 basis points since late June and over 50 basis points since the third quarter of last year. However, the sudden spike in Libor is not a reflection of tightening credit conditions, but could be due to a combination of money market reforms and a rise in demand for short-term dollar financing from overseas investors.
INTEREST RATES & GROWTH
The yield on the 10-year Treasury looks to have established a bottom, finishing the month higher by 13 basis points at 1.58 percent. Many see the turnaround in the direction of rates as a sign that the market is pricing in a growth rebound in the second half of the year. The U.S. economy grew less than previously reported (1.1 percent vs. 1.2 percent) in the second quarter due to lower government outlays and a bigger depletion of inventories, capping a sluggish first-half performance, supported mainly by consumer spending.
POLITICAL AND REGULATORY TRENDS
Hillary Clinton’s post-convention bump appears to be holding up, as polls are reporting a national lead for the Democratic nominee. Donald Trump has responded by shaking up his campaign staff, and most recently, softening his stance on immigration. The first presidential debate is scheduled for Monday, September 26, and may prove to be another chance for Trump to re-establish the momentum that handed him the Republican nomination.
INVESTMENT TRENDS
Consumer confidence increased to an almost one-year high in August as Americans became more optimistic about the U.S. labor market. Payrolls gains, coupled with heightened expectations for a growth rebound in the second half of the year might prove to be the catalyst that finally pushes interest rates higher. This could benefit the financial sector (banks, insurance companies, pension funds) but may dampen the return prospects for fixed income and real estate.
CENTRAL BANK POLICY
At the annual policy symposium for global central bank officials in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Janet Yellen made the case for the next rate increase here in the U.S., increasing the likelihood of a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting. On the other end of the policy spectrum, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda vowed to “act decisively” on monetary policy if needed, which includes taking rates even further into negative territory.
[26]