September 2021
Prepared by Karen E. Rushing, Clerk of the Circuit Court and County Comptroller
Summary of Investment Strategy: President Joe Biden signed a nine-week stopgap funding bill that averted a government shutdown and extends funding until Dec. 3rd. Additionally, President Biden vowed to sign the Senate bill which raises the U.S. debt limit and allows for federal borrowing until Dec. 3rd. This is during a time when the Democrat controlled Congress looks to enact President Biden's broader economic plan. The market is likely to see increased volatility during this continued time of uncertainty. The US Treasury curve is very steep in short with the 3mo Bill, 0.03%, 2 year at 0.28%, 3 year at 0.51% and the 5 year at 0.96%. An investment strategy will be implemented to take advantage of increases in yield while keeping the weighted average maturity short of the allowable limits in the IPS.
ISM Manufacturing came in at 59.9 in August, above expectations of 58.5 and above last month's value of 59.5. Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 235k in August which fell well below expectations of 733k. July's figure was revised slightly higher to 1,053k from the previously reported 943k. Average hourly earnings were up 4.3% in August – beating the market expectation of 3.9%; while the prior month reported an upward revision to 4.1% YOY increase.
TSM Manufacturing came in at 25.3 in August, above exposure to Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 235k in August which fell well below expectations of 733k. July's figure was revised slightly higher to 1,053k from the previously reported 943k. Aவரைக் கூந்தல் சுணிப்பு வரை 4 30% in August, beating the market expectation of 3 0%: while the prior month reported an upward revision
from the previously reported 45K. Average hourly earnings were up 4.3% in August – beating the market expectation of 3.9%; while the prior month reported an upward revision to 4.1% YOY increase.
Producer prices ex-food and energy, YOY rose 6.7% in August which was higher than expectations of 6.6% increase and higher than the 6.2% last month.
➢ Retail sales ex auto and gas increased by 2.0% in August which came in higher than expectations of 0.0% and last month's revised -1.4%.
Jobless claims fell to a new pandemic low as businesses held on to workers despite the surging Delta variant.
The Treasury could run out of room next month to keep paying the government's bills on time unless Congress steps in to suspend or raise the federal borrowing limit. Yellen said.
All employers with 100 or more employees would have to require their workers to be vaccinated or undergo at least weekly Covid-19 testing under a new plan outlined by Biden to curb the spread of the pandemic.
Manufacturers are facing the highest steel and aluminum prices in years, another hurdle for the U.S. companies already struggling to make enough cars, cans and other products.
The Fed signaled it was ready to start reversing its pandemic stimulus programs in November and could raise interest rates next year amid risks of a lengthier-than-anticipated jump in inflation.
Home-price growth climbed to a record in July as buyers continued to compete fiercely amid a shortage of homes for sale.
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