Inflation and interest rates remained a key focus for investors during the second quarter, with higher energy prices adding to market uncertainty. While the Federal Reserve and Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged, the European Central Bank increased rates by 0.25% to 2.25%, while the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.0%, its highest level since 1995.
Bond markets also experienced volatility, with UK and US government bond yields rising during April and May. The UK 30-year gilt yield briefly exceeded 5.8%, its highest level since 1998, before easing back towards the end of the quarter as geopolitical tensions began to subside.
Inflation trends remained mixed. UK inflation fell from 3.3% in March to 2.8% in April and remained stable in May. In contrast, US inflation rose to 4.2% in May. Encouragingly, lower oil prices towards the end of the quarter may help ease inflationary pressures in the months ahead. 2.8%
Key Highlights
2.8%
UK inflation fell from 3.3% in March to 2.8% in April
4.2%
US inflation rose to 4.2% in May
5.8%
What's on the Horizon? As we move into the third quarter, geopolitical developments are likely to remain an important focus for investors, particularly as energy markets continue to respond to events in the Middle East.
As we move into the third quarter, geopolitical developments are likely to remain an important focus for investors, particularly as energy markets continue to respond to events in the Middle East.
Central banks will also remain in the spotlight as they balance easing inflation against signs of slower economic growth. While inflation has started to moderate in some regions, underlying price pressures and tight labour markets continue to influence interest rate decisions.
In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer's resignation has provided greater clarity around the political landscape. Investors will now be looking for further details on the economic priorities of any new government and how these may influence the UK's fiscal outlook.
Overall, while uncertainty remains, markets will continue to focus on economic fundamentals, policy decisions and long-term growth opportunities.
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Source of financial market data: Morningstar Direct